Poultry trade prospects for 2006 jeopardized by escalating AI outbreaks

摘要

As outbreaks of avian influenza in wild Aswans in Europe are progressively reported, global poultry markets have witnessed immediate and dramatic swings in consumer responses, increased trade bans and sharp downward price movements. Unlike 2004 and most of 2005 when the AI consumption impact was largely restricted to the Asian region, new AI detections in February 2006 in more than 12 nations around the globe has resulted in immediate and sharp consumption declines in importing countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia. At the onset of avian influenza outbreaks in 2004, lagging consumption in Asia and the loss of export markets for regional supplies led to an 8 percent decline in international trade. Over two years, as non-disease affected countries moved to fill the gap in available supplies, poultry prices were driven up in international markets by over 30 percent. In contrast, early year developments in 2006 indicate a very different market environment. Irrespective of whether the outbreaks are identified in wild birds or in commercial flocks, consumption shocks are progressively lowering global import demand for broiler parts. This sharp change in demand in a context of adequate supplies is expected to maintain downward pressure on poultry prices over the short term. This implies changing industry profitability around the world and eroding household livelihood and rural employment opportunities in developing countries.