Gas prices to rise slowly in 2013; E&Ps seek ways to profit; analysts

摘要

Looking at 2013 estimates for natural gas prices and for exploration-and-production companies, analysts are expecting a slightly more positive outcome than the results seen in 2012. While shale gas discoveries have proven lucrative for US manufacturers and residential consumers that use cheap gas, E&Ps have found it hard to profit in the current oversupplied environment, analysts say. The low cost of gas since the shale boom in the US has squeezed margins and forced shale drillers to lower rig counts and try to increase profitability. 2013 natural gas forecasts among analysts ranged from $4.25/MMBtu at JP Morgan, $3.25/Mcf at Raymond James, $3.70/MMBtu at Barclays and $3.52/Mcf at Societe Generale. The Energy Information Administration, in its January short-term energy outlook, expects that Henry Hub prices will average $3.74/MMBtu in 2013, which compares with $2.75/MMBtu in 2012. "Current options and futures prices imply that market participants place the lower and upper bounds for the 95% confidence interval for April 2013 contracts at $2.42/MMBtu and $4.73/ MMBtu, respectively."