Return to peak consumption level expected to be slow and steady

摘要

Where is our V-shaped recovery? The recovery in consumption has been tepid. We are now five years into the recovery and yet volumes remain well below the pre-2006 peak. It appears many more years may pass before we get back to peak levels. In 2009, just before the massive stimulus bill was passed, we were forecasting a V-shaped recovery based on an infrastructure-centered stimulus package. However, to our surprise, less than 10 percent of the $800 billion package went to infrastructure. Because of the low infrastructure portion of the stimulus and a lack of any incentives for private investment, we changed our view in 2010 from a V-shaped recovery to a slow, plodding recovery.