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摘要

The automobile market in China is booming. China's persistent economic growth and its drop in car prices as a result of the World Trade Organization accession have led to a considerable increase in private car demand. A Chinese automobile quantum leap strategy is discussed against the backdrop of the global climate and energy security consequence that will arise from the country's mass motorization. Instead of investing in a fossil fuel infrastructure, China should jump immediately to hydrogen fuel and hydrogen propulsion technologies. While this vision is very plausible, an automobile quantum leap in China is not automatic. Motorization with conventional car technologies already has a momentum in China, that is known from the earlier waves of motorization in the U.S. und Europe.%Angesichts der globalen Folgen einer chinesischen Massenmotorisierung für Klima und Energiesicherheit scheint die Vision eines Überspringens von konventionellem Fahrzeugantrieb und fossiler Tankstelleninfrastruktur und dem sofortigen Einstieg in nachhaltige Zukunftstechnologien wie Wasserstoff und Brennstoffzelle für China attraktiv. Aber wie realistisch ist diese Vision vom automobilen Quantensprung eigentlich?