ECONOMIC PROSPECTS AND POLICY ISSUES

摘要

Since late 2001, a global recovery has been under way, with trade and industrial production picking up across the globe. However, after a strong first quarter, concerns about the pace and sustainability of the recovery haw risen significantly. Financial markets have weakened markedly, with equity markets falling sharply since end-March accompanied by a depreciation of the U.S. dollar; financing conditions for emerging markets have deteriorated, particularly in South America and Turkey; and incoming data in both the U.S. and the euro area have fallen short of expectations. The recovery is still expected to continue, but global growth in the second half of 2002 and in 2003 will be weaker than earlier expected (Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1), and the risks to the outlook are primarily on the downside. With inflationary pressures generally subdued, macro-economic policies in advanced countries will now need to remain accommodative for longer than had earlier seemed necessary; if incoming data were to suggest that the recovery is faltering, additional monetary easing would need to be considered. Attention also needs to focus on policies to reduce dependence on the United States as the global engine of growth, and to support an orderly reduction in the global imbalances, which remain a serious risk to the world economy.