CHAPTER Ⅰ ECONOMIC PROSPECTS AND POLICY ISSUES

摘要

The expansion remains broadly on track, with global growth forecasts for 2005 and 2006 largely unchanged from the last World Economic Outlook (Table 1.1 and Figure 1.1), although risks are still slanted to the downside. Following a temporary slowdown in mid-2004, global GDP growth picked up through the first quarter of 2005, with robust services sector output more than offsetting slowing global growth in manufacturing and, latterly, trade. In the second quarter, however, in part reflecting the impact of higher oil prices, signs of a renewed "soft patch" emerged, with leading indicators turning downward and business confidence weakening in most major countries (Figure 1.2). While global manufacturing and trade are now strengthening, and leading indicators have picked up, the continuing rise in crude oil and refined product prices— latterly exacerbated by the catastrophic effects of Hurricane Katrina—is an increasingly important offset.