ECONOMIC PROSPECTS AND POLICY ISSUES

摘要

The global economic expansion has remained broadly on track, evolving largely as expected when the last World Economic Outlook was published in September 2004. After averaging about 6 percent in late 2003 and early 2004, global growth moderated, accompanied by a significant slowdown in industrial production and global trade, reflecting both a return to a more sustainable pace of expansion and the adverse impact of higher oil prices (Figures 1.1 and 1.2 and Table 1.1). Most recent data suggest that this slowdown has begun to bottom out, and forward-looking indicators appear consistent with solid expansion in 2005, although rising oil prices are an increasing risk. Despite the appalling human cost and physical destruction of the December 2004 tsunami and the substantial budget and balance of payments implications for some affected countries (Box 1.1, 'The Indian Ocean Tsunami: Impact on South Asian Economies"), the impact on growth is expected to be modest.