Reference scenarios for evaluating wood pellet production in the Southeastern United States

摘要

Wood pellet exports from the Southeastern United States (SE US) to Europernhave been increasing in response to European Union member state policies torndisplace coal with renewable biomass for electricity generation. An understandingrnof the interactions among SE US forest markets, forest management, and forestrnecosystem services is required to quantify the effects of pellet productionrncompared to what would be expected under a reference case or ‘counterfactualrnscenario’ without pellet production. Inconsistent methods to define and justifyrnthe counterfactual scenario result in conflicting estimates and large uncertaintiesrnabout the impacts of pellet production on SE US forests. Guidelines to supportrnmore consistent and transparent counterfactual scenarios are proposed. Thernguidelines include identifying major influences on current SE US forestrnconditions, developing potential futures that clearly document underlyingrnassumptions and associated uncertainties, identifying the most likely alternativernfeedstock fates, and estimating the effects of no pellet demand on future forestrnconditions. The guidelines can help modelers to more accurately reflect the pastrnand current forest dynamics and to consider the implications for SE US forestrnlandscapes of future scenarios with and without pellet production.