System effects of high demand-side electrification rates: A scenario analysis for Germany in 2030

摘要

The substitution of fossil fueled final energy consumption through electrical appliancesand processes (electrification), in combination with an increased share ofemission free electricity production, poses a promising deep decarbonization strategy.To reveal the effect of high demand-side electrification rates on the transmissiongrid and electricity supply-side a case-study analysis for the German market isperformed. A reference scenario with low demand-side electrification and low gridcongestion is compared to high demand-side electrification scenarios with two differentshares of renewable electricity production of total electrical load: “Elec61”and “Elec75.” The analysis shows that an increase of the electrical load from ～500TWh to ～760 TWh leads to heightened stress for the transmission grid and thereforemore curtailment in both electrification scenarios. In Elec61, which exhibitsthe same share of renewable electricity production as the reference scenario, theintegration of 19 TWh of flexible power-to-heat in district heating networksreduces the market driven curtailment of renewable feed-in, highlighting the valueof flexible electrical loads for the integration of variable renewable energy sources.Although a drastic increase of installed renewable electricity production capacityoccurs in Elec61 (+109 GW) and Elec75 (+178 GW) compared to the referencescenario, fossil fueled power plants are still being dispatched frequently in times ofhigh electrical load and low renewable energy feed. In the examined scenarios,deep decarbonization through electrification was not possible because the decreaseof the CO_2-coefficient of power generation resulting from an increase in theinstalled capacity of variable renewable energy sources was insufficient.