A real-time operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir with flood risk analysis

摘要

Risk analysis is essential to reservoir operation. In this study, a new analysis for reservoir operation is proposed to enhance the utilization rate of the flood water from the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) during the flood season. Based on five scenarios of hydrology forecasting with the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), a multi-objective optimum operation was implemented employing the risk control constraints of the genetic algorithm (GA) for the TGR. The results of this analysis indicated that the optimum hydropower generation was 5.7% higher than the usual operating hydropower generation, which suggested that, during flood season, it would be beneficial to increase hydropower generation from reservoirs, while maintaining a safe degree of flood risk.