Effects of Pipe Roughness Uncertainty on Water Distribution Network Performance During its Operational Period

摘要

The design of new water distribution networks (WDNs) is an important social problem. Failures during an operational period provoke deficits in consumption nodes thus decreasing the performance of the network. WDN performance can be defined as the ability to sufficiently secure demand and desirable pressure in nodes based on changes in design parameters. This paper focuses on the evaluation of network performance during an operational period, taking into account pipe roughness uncertainty. A network analysis is performed by generating probabilistic series of pipe roughness using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) in the operational period of the Two-loop WDN. Results show that an increase in pipe roughness uncertainty causes a decrease in network performance in the operational period. Furthermore, the network has a desirable efficiency only in the first 10 years. Thus, the proposed design methodology that considers the uncertainty of design variables is an effective procedure to evaluate network performance.