Application of System Dynamics to Water Security Research

摘要

Water security is an important component of regional security and sustainable development and it significantly affects regional development strategies. Flood security, water resource security, and water environment security are the basic elements of a water security system. These elements exhibit dynamic and complex characteristics. System dynamics (SD) is a qualitative and quantitative simulation and analysis method for system integration. SD is applicable to complex system research and has achieved significant results in water security system research. This study initially collected literature on water security research and application in recent years, and then verified the progress and deficiencies in current research. Our research on water security focuses on managing and predicating a single subsystem. Our research on flood control and disaster mitigation focuses on managing and forecasting floods. Our research on water resource security focuses on water resource management, carrying capacity, and planning, as well as on sustainable water utilization. Finally, our research on water environment security includes water quality management, water pollution control, early warning systems, and water ecology. The SD method can properly solve the complicated relations in a water security system but exhibits limitations in the following aspects: research on large systems; influence of social environment changes; uncertainties in water security; and the methods, means, and influence of natural environment changes on water security.