Self-Optimization System Dynamics Simulation of Real-Time Short Term Cascade Hydropower System Considering Uncertainties

摘要

Uncertainties of inflow and temporary power instructions always make it intractable to make decisions in real-time short term hydropower operation. To deal with the problems caused by uncertainties and realize self-optimization for real-time short term hydropower operation, relevant measurement indexes are firstly discussed and deduced. Then the self-optimization system dynamics simulation of real-time short term cascade hydropower system is developed by taking advantages of feedback loops in system dynamics simulation. Finally, the proposed self-optimization system dynamics simulation model is illustrated in Shuibuya-Geheyan-Gaobazhou cascade hydropower system on Qing River in China. Three typical scenarios are analyzed and different dispatching strategies are simulated in feedback loops. The results indicate that system dynamics simulation is an effective way to simulate a complex cascade hydropower system with feedback and causal loops. Moreover, it makes a contribution to making up a daily schedule and making decisions in real-time short time operation. Also, operation rules can be extracted for the cascade dispatching center by SD simulation.