Assessment of Stochastic Operation Optimization for Reservoirs of Contrasting Scales

摘要

Deriving optimal release policies for dams and corresponding reservoirs is crucial for the sustainable water resources management of a region as they directly control the distribution of water to several users. Mathematical optimization algorithms can help in finding efficient reservoir operating strategies taking into account complex system constraints and hydrologic uncertainty. The robustness of operation optimization models may be influenced by physical reservoir characteristics such as size and scale and the effectiveness of a model for a particular case study does not always guarantee the same level of success for another application. This research focused on assessing the applicability of an implicit stochastic optimization (ISO) procedure to derive rule curves for two different dams of contrasting reservoir scales in terms of physical and operational characteristics. The results demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed technique for both small- and large-scale systems in view of the lower vulnerability provided by the ISO-derived policies in contrast to operations carried out by the standard reservoir operating policy as well as the proximity of the ISO operations with those by perfect-forecast deterministic optimization. The ISO procedure also provided operating rules similar to, and even less vulnerable than, those derived by stochastic dynamic programming.