Regional Water Use Structure Optimization Under Multiple Uncertainties Based on Water Resources Vulnerability Analysis

摘要

In this paper, a modeling framework by combining system dynamic (SD) model and optimal allocation model was developed to study water resources vulnerability and optimal water use structure, and the framework was applied in the middle reaches of Heihe River basin, northwest of China. The SD model could describe the dynamical change of water resources vulnerability by integrating water resources with socio-economic effect. The sensitivity analysis of SD model was then conducted to design appropriate scenarios for finding out the optimal development pattern, and based on which, an integrated water-saving scenario with lower water resources vulnerability was identified for optimization modeling. Then, an inexact fuzzy-parameter two-stage programming (IFTSP) model was developed and applied to optimize water use structure among industries under uncertainties. This study addresses the water resources vulnerability analysis in considering both water resources system and socio-economic system. Water resources vulnerability analysis was combined with optimization model to make adaptive water resources management plans. And the optimal allocation schemes under lower water resources vulnerability are more advantageous for regional sustainable development.