Uncertainty analysis on the water resource system in water-supply zone of Tarim River Watershed: Based on the multiplication frequency curve type Ⅲ(X-Ⅲ_2)

摘要

The Tarim River Watershed consists of the headstream and trunk-stream zone, and the water consumed by the human and ecosystem in the trunk-stream zone is basically controlled by the hydrological process in the headstream. This process is random. Because the serial of hydrological observation data is short, it is necessary to analyze the uncertainty of hydrological system in order to obtain integrated hydrological information. The probability statistics is a method which frequently used to deal with this problem. But P-Ⅲ Frequency Curve in common use is not perfect. And the multiplication frequency curve type Ⅲ, based on the multiplication theorem of probability and the attribute of median, have such qualities as fitting the calculation of non-instantaneous value( for annual runoff quantum), no J-shaped & Z-shaped distribution and resistibility and robust. Using the X-Ⅲ_2 multiplication frequency curve, the 5 long data serials (n=14800) are simulated with the observed data through 35 years of 5 hydrological stations in headstream zone. The statistic analyses of these analog serials are made. The analytical results show that the hydrologic and water resource system in headstream zone is stable. This conclusion will help the exploitation and utilization of water resource in the basin.