Temporal variations analyses and predictive modeling of microbiological seawater quality

摘要

Bathing water quality is a major public health issue, especially for tourism-oriented regions. Currently used methods within EU allow at least a 2.2 day period for obtaining the analytical results, making outdated the information forwarded to the public. Obtained results and beach assessment are influenced by the temporal and spatial characteristics of sample collection, and numerous environmental parameters, as well as by differences of official water standards. This paper examines the temporal variation of microbiological parameters during the day, as well as the influence of the sampling hour, on decision processes in the management of the beach. Apart from the fecal indicators stipulated by the EU Bathing Water Directive (E. coli and enterococci), additional fecal (C. perfringens) and non-fecal (S. aureus and P. aeriginosa) parameters were analyzed. Moreover, the effects of applying different evaluation criteria (national, EU and U.S. EPA) to beach ranking were studied, and the most common reasons for exceeding water-quality standards were investigated. In order to upgrade routine monitoring, a predictive statistical model was developed.