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Water pipes: why ‘lifetime’ is not an adequate concept on which to base pipe renewal strategies

机译:水管:为什么“寿命”不适合作为水管更新策略的基础

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Stakeholders involved in the renewal of drinking water pipes almost always use mean ‘lifetime’ values, which are set by an expert based on material type. A common approach to estimating replacement requirements is to assume that all pipes of the same class of material are renewed when they reach an age equal to their average ‘lifetime’. However, experience shows that for the same type of pipes, very different average ‘lifetime’ values are used, leading to inaccurate estimations of renewal requirements. Furthermore, the notion of ‘lifetime’ can lead to confusion between ‘financial requirements’ and ‘practical rehab requirements’. This study highlights the advantage of considering that pipes of the same class of material can have different lifetimes, the values of which can then be represented in a statistical ‘survival curve’. Replacement needs generated through this curve are then smoothed, allowing realistic annual renewal budgets to be calculated. Given the risk of incorrect evaluation that the term ‘lifetime’ may entail, the term should be avoided when discussing pipe renewal. It would appear preferable to use the term ‘service life’, which clearly expresses the choice to be made by decision makers between repair and renewal.
机译:涉及饮用水管道更新的利益相关者几乎总是使用均值“寿命”值,该值是由专家根据材料类型设置的。估算替换需求的一种常用方法是,假设所有同类材料的管道在达到其平均“使用寿命”时均已更新。然而,经验表明,对于相同类型的管道,使用的平均“寿命”值相差很大,从而导致对更新需求的估算不准确。此外,“终身”的概念可能会导致“财务要求”和“实践康复要求”之间的混淆。这项研究强调了考虑相同材料类别的管道可以具有不同寿命的优势,然后可以在统计“生存曲线”中表示其值。然后,可以平滑通过该曲线生成的替换需求,从而可以计算出实际的年度更新预算。鉴于可能存在“寿命”一词可能导致错误评估的风险,因此在讨论管道更新时应避免使用该词。似乎最好使用“使用寿命”一词,该术语明确表示决策者在维修和更新之间做出选择。

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