Water Supply Need Analysis for the Lower Yellow River

摘要

The objective of this paper is to examine a deficit in surface water for the lower reaches of the Yellow River. The methods suggested in this paper to diagnose water shortage problems are simple and practical. The results show that the lower reaches of the Yellow River are areas without sufficient water to meet the needs of irrigation, domestic, and industrial uses. The completion of the Sanmenxia reservoir and Xiaolangdi reservoir relax the conflict between water need and supply. However, if the hydrologic status becomes pessimistic with an exceedence probability of over 80 percent, then the water supply is still severe in the lower reaches of the Yellow River. The water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River to Tianjin and Qingdao cities are very limited and unstable. The most feasible options to offset the water deficiency in the lower reaches of the Yellow River are: (a) to obtain water from the Yangzi River; (b) to obtain more water from middle and upper reaches through regulation; (c) to conduct a comprehensive water saving program.