Multimedia Modelling of the Exposure to Cadmium and Lead Released in the Atmosphere—Application to Industrial Releases in a Mediterranean Region and Uncertainty/Sensitivity Analysis

摘要

Two advanced models that respectively simulate the transport of heavy metals in the atmosphere at continental and regional scale, as well as the transfer of contaminants in the air–soil–plant system, were used to study the potential accumulation of lead and cadmium in vegetables in a French region submitted to global and local industrial releases. The dynamics of lead and cadmium in the atmosphere, the soil and two types of plants (leaf and fruit vegetables respectively) were simulated over 40 years. Kinetic best estimate calculations were conducted to simulate the potential accumulation of lead and cadmium in soils and plants. An uncertainty analysis was also performed to provide confidence intervals for the maximum contamination levels of leaf and fruit vegetables. A sensitivity analysis allowed to identify the most sensitive parameters of the modeling system. For this purpose, Probability Density Functions were proposed for the main parameters included in the air-soil-plant model. Different results were obtained for lead and cadmium respectively, lead being more sensitive to aerial processes (interception of deposits by leaves eventually followed by translocation to edible organs).