A systems dynamics approach for supporting regional decisions on the energetic use of regional biomass residues

摘要

This article presents the definition, building, calibration and application of a system dynamics simulation model to quantify the present and future comparative advantages and disadvantages of using forest and agricultural residual biomass for energetic purpose through different processes and technologies, on a regional basis. A dynamic structure of the agricultural and forestry biomass process activities (i.e. production, transport, conversion and consumption) based on regional time-series data was built, implemented into and calibrated within a dynamic simulation tool (Vensim software) within a Hungarian county. Besides the agriculture and forestry sectors, the model includes data about demography, economy, environment and land use, among others. For carrying out the assessment, realistic scenarios of future biomass processes and of biomass use were formulated, characterised by quantitative sustainable development indicators and simulated within the dynamic model. The results prove that the introduced model supports decision making of biomass utilisation in a regional scale, through comparing and analysing quantitative changes of economic, social and environment indicators, which characterise a sustainable regional development. The model therefore allows analyses and evaluation of not only partial prosperous or adverse characteristics of biomass processes and use, but also to relate regional components and their development over time. The developed dynamic tool is therefore a powerful method to model complex systems, such as a regional energy system, considering the framework of the regional preferences stated by the regional stakeholders. It can thus provide useful decision support, especially when used as a priority-based screening of potential regional development programmes in the energy field.