Understanding variability, habit and the effect of long period activity plan in modal choices: a day to day, week to week analysis on panel data

摘要

Understanding variability in individual behaviour is crucial for the comprehension of travel patterns and for the development and evaluation of planning policies. But, with only one notable exception, there are no studies on the intrinsic variability in the individual p for mode choices in absence of external changes in the transport infrastructures. This requires using continuous panel data. Few papers have studied mode choice with continuous panel data but mainly focused on the panel correlation. In this work we use a six-week travel diary survey to study the intrinsic variability in the individual p for mode choices, the effect of long period plans and habitual behaviour in the daily mode choices. Mixed logit models are estimated that account for the above effects as well as for systematic and random heterogeneity over individual p and responses. We also account for correlation over several time periods. Our results suggest that individual tastes for time and cost are fairly stable but there is a significant systematic and random heterogeneity around these mean values and in the p for the different alternatives. We found that there is a strong inertia effect in mode choice that increases with (or is reinforced by) the number of time the same tour is repeated. The sequence of mode choice made is influenced by the duration of the activity and the weekly structure of the activities.