Potential changes to travel behaviors & patterns: a fuzzy cognitive map modeling approach

摘要

The future of travel will be affected by a number of disruptive changes, including advancements in vehicle technology, such as automated vehicles, changes in population demographics and the economy, and lifestyle changes. It is difficult to say just how much each change will affect the amount and type of travel in the future, especially given the amount of uncertainty there is regarding the trajectory of these changes and their effects. The authors examined changes that are likely to affect transportation behaviors in the future, developed a "fuzzy cognitive map" (FCM) of the relationships, and used the FCM model to investigate the effects of those relationships. The results of the study show that FCM models offer a promising method for transportation planners to enhance their ability to reason about system effects when quantitative information is limited and uncertain. More specifically, the results provide some initial guidance on the potential impacts of disruptive changes on future travel, which may help in targeting limited research funds on the most consequential potential changes.