Uncertain socioeconomic projections used in travel demand and emission models: could plausible errors result in air quality nonconformity?

摘要

A sensitivity analysis of plausible errors in population, employment, fuel price, and income projections is conducted using the travel demand and emission models of the Sacramento, CA, USA, region for their transportation plan. The results of the analyses indicate that plausible error ranges for household income and fuel prices are not a significant source of uncertainty with respect to the region's travel demand and emissions projections. However, plausible errors in population and employment projections(within ap- proximately one standard deviation)may result in the region's transportation plan not meeting the con- formity test for nitrogens of oxides(NO_x)in the year 2005(i.e., an approximately 16/100 probability).