An agent-based modeling system for travel demand simulation for hurricane evacuation

摘要

This paper presents an agent-based travel demand model system for hurricane evacuation simulation, which is capable of generating comprehensive household activity-travel plans. The system implements econometric and statistical models that represent travel and decision-making behavior throughout the evacuation process. The system considers six typical evacuation decisions: evacuate/stay, accommodation type choice, evacuation destination choice, mode choice, vehicle usage choice, and departure time choice. It explicitly captures the shadow evacuation population. In addition, the model system captures pre-evacuation preparation activities using an activity-based approach. A demonstration study that predicts activity-travel patterns using model parameters estimated for the Miami-Dade area for a hypothetical category-4 hurricane is discussed. The simulation results clearly indicate the model system produces a distribution of choice patterns that is consistent with sample observations and existing literature. The model system also identifies the proportion of the shadow evacuation population and their geographical extent. About 23% of the population outside the designated evacuation zone would evacuate. The shadow evacuation demand is mainly located within 5 km of the coastline. The output demand of the model system works with agent-based traffic simulation tools and conventional trip-based simulation tools.