A new risk quantification approach in port facility security assessment

摘要

Terrorist attacks in the past decade had raised concern that terrorists capable of the suicide hijackings of airplanes could readily adapt such capabilities to maritime targets like ports. Although a large number of port security control measures have been proposed which have greatly enhanced security performance, the voice of requiring further justification on their effectiveness from various maritime stakeholders remains strong. Indeed, different ports around the world still have very diversified practices and standards regarding "secure" facilities, with a generally accepted assessment methodology found wanting. Despite the existence of previous research works, few have been done to address this issue, which clearly exposes a significant research gap. Understanding such deficiency, this paper introduces a novel fuzzy evidential reasoning approach to facilitate the quantitative analysis of port facility security assessment (PFSA). To achieve it, the major key security performance indicators (KSPIs) used by designated authorities in port facility security plan are identified; the current PFSA practices are reviewed with particular attention to the grades used by port operators when assessing the KSPIs; and a fuzzy evidential reasoning approach is applied to quantify port facility security risks and to conduct the cost benefit analysis of the associated security control measures.