A methodology for high resolution vehicular emissions inventories in metropolitan areas: Evaluating the effect of automotive technologies improvement

摘要

The establishment of public policies that successfully control pollutants concentration in the atmosphere has been a challenge in many urban areas. As the road transport is an important source of pollution, information on fleet composition and its emissions are important to verify emissions control strategies and to guide mitigation measures. In that context, the present study proposes a method to develop and evaluate high resolution inventories for road transport emissions in metropolitan areas. This method was applied to the Florianopolis Metropolitan Area (FLMA), in Santa Catarina, Brazil. A probabilistic bottom-up approach was employed using modeled transportation data to produce a vehicular emissions inventory in high resolution. This approach was developed to account for fleet characteristics in emission factors estimations. The impact of vehicle categories and their emissions distribution was also analyzed. Results showed that light vehicles categories were responsible for 96% of CO, 87% of NMHC, 82% of CH4 and 74% of N2O emissions, well distributed throughout the road network. Heavy-duty vehicles emitted the biggest amount of the NOx and MP (80% and 94%, respectively), mostly concentrated in expressways. An analysis of emissions on each network hierarchy showed that expressways comprehended 45% of CO, 48% of HC, 79% of NOx, and 85% of PM emissions. The residual part of those pollutants is emitted by local, collector, connector and arterial roads. And finally, a hypothetical scenario pointed that replacing the FLMA's fleet for vehicles of model-year from 2017 has a potential to decrease emissions up to 95%.