Evaluating the determinants of switching to public transit in an automobile-oriented mid-sized Canadian city: A longitudinal analysis

摘要

Despite abundant literature on the determinants of transit ridership, there is a dearth of longitudinal studies that evaluate changes in transit uptake over time, particularly within mid-sized cities. The mid-sized city of Kingston, Ontario has recently introduced three express transit routes. Drawing from a longitudinal sample of university employees working in downtown Kingston (n = 906), we measured change in ridership and transit-related attitudes over time, and modelled the factors that best predict who will shift to transit for their commute. From 2013 to 2016, year-round transit mode share doubled, from 3.9% to 7.8%, while attitudes towards Kingston Transit grew more favourable. Transit "shifters" were most likely to: be female; have lower household income; live 5-10 km from campus; not have a Queen's parking permit in 2013; and be willing to spend at least 21 min on transit. These findings offer valuable insights for further increasing transit uptake in Kingston.