Electric vehicles, air pollution, and the motorcycle city: A stated preference survey of consumers' willingness to adopt electric motorcycles in Solo, Indonesia

摘要

This paper presents the results of a choice experiment to evaluate the extent to which electric motorcycles are a potential replacement for gasoline-powered motorcycles in Solo, Indonesia. Survey respondents faced five choice scenarios where they selected between a conventional motorcycle, an electric motorcycle, and no motorcycle based on price, speed, range, and charge time. Approximately 1200 individuals completed all five choice scenarios and fully responded to socioeconomic and preference questions. As in much of Southeast Asia, motorcycles dominate the transportation system and provide inexpensive, relatively safe, and convenient point-to-point travel. However, motorcycles also produce substantial, harmful local emissions. To estimate the probability of selecting different motorcycle types, the survey data are fit with a mixed logit model with random coefficients. This specification allows correlation across choices over time, flexible substitution across the choice alternatives, and variation in consumer preferences. The results of the survey and analysis indicate that there is almost certainly a market for electric motorcycles but their price and performance will have to be competitive with low-cost, gas powered ones. Speed, range, charge time, and price all mattered substantially with respondents willing to pay a 7-13% premium for motorcycles with 10 km longer range, 10 km/h faster speed, or an hour shorter charge time. Charge time was particularly important, suggesting that improvements in battery charging technology and charging infrastructure could substantially impact consumers' willingness to adopt electric motorcycles. Younger non-smoking respondents with concerns about the environment and favorable views of e-bikes were most likely to choose electric motorcycles.