Hinterland patterns of China Railway (CR) express in China under the Belt and Road Initiative: A preliminary analysis

摘要

To analyse the hinterland patterns of the CHINA RAILWAY Express (CR express) in China under the Belt and Road Initiative, this paper first reviews the development stages of the CR express. Second, 5 typical CR express routes are examined to comparatively analyse the CR express and seaborne container shipping from the perspective of freight cost structure. According to the binary logit model, the current and the prospective hinterland patterns (choice probability) of two types of products of the CR express are explored. The results show that governmental subsidies for the operators of CR express contribute to decreasing 60% of CR express freight cost. And shippers of IT products are easier to choose the CR express than those of other products. As a result, Chongqing, Chengdu, Zhengzhou and Wuhan have the same opportunities to become the regional railway hub for IT product transport. In Chongqing, however, the high share of other products in CR express market will impact greatly on its competition for the regional railway hub among the aforementioned inland cities.