Developing a Storm Severity Index

摘要

A primary goal in winter highway maintenance is to develop various maintenance processes so that quality control can be measured. If actions can be measured, they can be improved. A difficulty with this approach is that winter maintenance addresses the impacts of winter weather on the transportation system and that weather is inherently uncontrollable. Consequently, for a quality process to be applied to winter maintenance, the severity of individual storms must be assessed. This paper presents one way in which the severity of a storm can be measured, specifically by an index. The first step in developing an index for individual storms is to develop a method of describing storms. The method here describes storms by using six factors, including prestorm and poststorm conditions and temperatures, wind speed, and precipitation type. The matrix created is a refinement of that presented in FHWA's manual of practice for effective anti-icing. With the use of a simplified variation of this matrix-based description of storms (more than 250 descriptions), a score is generated for each storm type. This score is then adjusted so that scores for all storms fall into a normal distribution between 0 and 1. This ranking of storms was evaluated by winter maintenance garage supervisors at the Iowa Department of Transportation. Supervisors were asked to rank 10 storms (presented as brief written descriptions) from easiest to hardest to handle. Results were compared with those of the initial storm severity index. From that comparison, numerical values for certain factors were adjusted so that storm severity index scores for these 10 storms agreed with rankings given by the garage supervisors.