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ESTIMATION OF PERCENTAGE OF PASS-BY TRIPS GENERATED BY A SHOPPING CENTER USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

机译:使用人工神经网络估算购物中心的通行百分率

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摘要

Pass-by trips are trips made as intermediate stops on the way from an origin to a primary trip destination. Accurate estimates of the percentage of pass-by trips generated by a land use are extremely important for both planners and developers. The traditional method of pass-by trip estimation is regression modeling with the help of the U.S. Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation manual. This paper also uses data from the Trip Generation manual, and focuses on an alternative methodology based on Arti- ficial Neural Networks (ANNs). Use is made of backpropogation, a popular ANN paradigm, and five different architectures of backpropogations are developed, tested and compared against three different regression models - linear, log-log and log-linear forms, respectively. The results from the regression and ANN-based models are compared in terms of the Root Mean Square of Errors (RMSE) of predicted values. It is found that the worst ANN prediction RMSE is lower than the best regression prediction RMSE. ANN-based models have the capability of representing the relationship between the per- centage of pass-by trips and the independent variables more accurately than regression analysis at no additional monetary costs.
机译:过境旅行是指在从起点到主要旅行目的地的途中作为中间站的旅行。对于规划人员和开发商而言,准确估算土地使用所产生的过路旅行百分比至关重要。过境旅行估计的传统方法是借助美国运输工程师协会(ITE)的旅行生成手册进行回归建模。本文还使用了“行程生成”手册中的数据,并重点介绍了基于人工神经网络(ANN)的替代方法。使用了反向传播(一种流行的ANN范例),并开发,测试了五个不同的反向传播体系结构,并分别与三种不同的回归模型(线性,对数对数和对数线性形式)进行了比较。根据预测值的均方根误差(RMSE)对回归模型和基于ANN的模型的结果进行比较。发现最差的ANN预测RMSE低于最佳回归预测RMSE。与回归分析相比,基于ANN的模型能够更准确地表示过境旅行的百分比与自变量之间的关系,而无需支付额外的金钱成本。

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