Estimation of a large-scale tour generation model taking travellers' daily tour patterns into account

摘要

Tour generation is conventionally modelled separately according to tour purpose. Tours with different purposes are, however, in reality not generated independently of each other. For example, few travellers conduct more than three tours per day. In this paper, the conventional tour generation model is extended into estimation of a model that takes travellers' daily tour patterns into account. Results show that access to a car and a drivers' licence, having a job and presence of children in the household increase the probability of making many tours in one day. Furthermore, results show that accessibility is an important factor for the generation of non-mandatory tours, that weekends and holiday seasons are important determinants of when tour purposes are generated, that high income increases the probability of conducting business tours as well as tour patterns that include expensive activities, and that high income reduces the probability of conducting inexpensive activities such as visiting friends and family.