AN ADVANCED PROCEDURE FOR THE QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF OFFSHORE INSTALLATIONS IN EXPLOSIONS

摘要

Hydrocarbon explosion and fire are typical accidents in the offshore oil and gas industry, sometimes with catastrophic consequences such as casualties, property damage and pollution. Successful engineering and design should meet both functional requirements associated with operability in normal conditions and health, safety, environmental and ergonomics (HSE&E) requirements associated with accidental and extreme conditions. A risk-based approach is best for successful design and engineering to meet HSE&E requirements. This study aimed to develop an advanced procedure for assessing the quantitative risk of offshore installations in explosions. Unlike existing industry practices based on prescriptive rules or qualitative approaches, the proposed procedure uses an entirely probabilistic approach. The procedure starts with probabilistic selection of accident scenarios. As the defining components of risk, both the frequency and consequences associated with selected accident scenarios are computed using the most refined technologies. Probabilistic technology is then applied to establish the relationship between the probability of exceedance and the physical values of the accident. Acceptance risk criteria can be applied to define the nominal values of design and/or level of risk. To validate and demonstrate the applicability of the proposed procedure, an example of its application to topside structures of an FPSO unit subjected to hydrocarbon explosions is detailed. The conclusions and insights obtained are documented.