需要同期生産における生産量予測方法の提案

摘要

近年，製造業では，顧客ニーズの多様化や環］菟負荷低減，安全・安心など社会的ニーズの高まりにより，ますます多品種少量生産が求められている．また，企業価値経常の観点から，キャッシュフローが経常指標として重要さを増している．このため，多品種少量晶を在庫極少で受注生産，あるいは受注組立生産できる生産体制の構築が重要となっている．%For demand-synchronized production, it is essential to secure manufacturing lines and facility to be required and keep required components on a steady basis. To achieve this, predicting the peak of future order is the key. Proposed on this paper is a method to predict future production volumes from the results of analysis of the past order data and determination of their similarity by Fourier analysis. When we examined a production forecast using the actual data, the peak-to-valley match rates, which indicate agreement with order peaks, were raised to a significant level. As a result, we can say it is possible to predict required production volumes in several days advance with sufficient accuracy. Wasted inventories could be decreased by better component arrangement. Furthermore, manufacturing facility could be arranged earlier and production load could be effectively adjusted with other manufacturing lines. Efficiency of the manufacturing facility in the entire factory would be largely increased.