A Study on Estimating RCS Creep-Rupture Failure Probability in Station Blackout Severe Accident

摘要

A severe accident has inherently significant uncertainties due to wide range of accident progression conditions although there have been much achievement on technical clarification based on analytical and experimental researches. Especially under high RCS temperature and pressure, the integrity of its pressure boundaries is extremely difficult to predict. Taken into this consideration, computer codes have been developed to model the thermo-hydraulic accident progression with conservative assumptions. However, there are still uncertainties in outputs of the computer code due to random inputs (aleatory) and uncertain constituents of the code itself (epistemic).