Mathematical Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis Methods Propagation of Uncertainty in the Inverse-Kinetics Equation

摘要

At Idaho State University we are involved in a project to quantify the minimum reactivity worth of a sample (e.g., of a minor actinide or fission product) that we can measure by means of inverse kinetics using an open-loop oscillator [1]. Of paramount importance to this determination is the effect of uncertainties in the kinetics constants (e.g., delayed neutron fraction, delayed neutron decay constant, and neutron generation time), and then how to assess the overall uncertainty in reactivity (p) in a measurement of neutron flux (n(t)) and its' time rate of change (dn(t)/dt) based on discretized data.