THE VALUE OF A PROBABILITY FORECAST FROM PORTFOLIO THEORY

摘要

A probability forecast scored ex post using a probability scoring rule (e.g. Brier) is analogous to a risky financial security. With only superficial adaptation, the same economic logic by which securities are valued ex ante - in particular, portfolio theory and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) - applies to the valuation of probability forecasts. Each available forecast of a given event is valued relative to each other and to the "market" (all available forecasts). A forecast is seen to be more valuable the higher its expected score and the lower the covariance of its score with the market aggregate score. Forecasts that score highly in trials when others do poorly are appreciated more than those with equal success in "easy" trials where most forecasts score well. The CAPM defines economically rational (equilibrium) forecast prices at which forecasters can trade shares in each other's ex post score -or associated monetary payoff - thereby balancing forecast risk against return and ultimately forming optimally hedged portfolios. Hedging this way offers risk averse forecasters an "honest" alternative to the ruse of reporting conservative probability assessments.