Analysing the trend of rainfall in Asir region of Saudi Arabia using the family of Mann-Kendall tests, innovative trend analysis, and detrended fluctuation analysis

摘要

The present study is designed to analyse the annual rainfall variability and trend in 30 meteorological stations of the Asir region for the period of 1970-2017 using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test, trend free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPW MK) test, and the innovative trend analysis (ITA). A comparative study among the trend detection techniques was performed using the correlation coefficient. The future rainfall trend based on the historical rainfall pattern was investigated by using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Results of the MK test showed that 20 stations in the study area observed a negative trend, and out of these, nine stations had significant negative trends at the significance level of 0.01. The findings of the MMK test showed that 23 stations recorded negative trends, and out of these, 18 stations had significant negative trends at the significance level of 0.01. Based on the findings of the TFPW-MK test, 21 stations observed a negative trend, and among these, 10 stations had significant negative trends at the significance of 0.01. ITA detected 25 stations observing a negative trend, and out of these, 18 stations had significant negative trends at the significance level of 0.01. Based on the findings of the tests and their performance, the MMK test appeared as the best performing technique among the MK test family, while ITA appeared as the best trend detection technique among the four techniques because it outperformed (p 0.01) the others. Results of DFA showed that 23 stations (10 were significant) had recorded declining future rainfall trends based on past trends. The results of the present study would help the planners and policy makers to make accurate and easy decisions on irrigation, climatic, and water resource management in the Asir region of Saudi Arabia.