Potential predictors for spring season dust storm forecast in Inner Mongolia, China

摘要

This study identifies potential predictors for seasonal forecast of dust storm frequency for the Inner Mongolia region of China. Regionally averaged antecedent annual precipitation anomaly has a significant influence on spring dust storm frequency. It is strongly linked to the frequency of severe dust storms that produce strong impact on the downstream Beijing-Tianjin area. A hindcast that uses precipitation anomaly to predict dust storm frequency in the following spring significantly outperforms clima-tologic forecast. Limited soil moisture observations indicate that an abundant annual precipitation increases the soil moisture of subsurface layer in the subsequent spring, which in turn improves vegetation growth that could lead to a reduction in the frequency of dust storms.