The thermal seasons variability in Poland, 1951-2010

摘要

The aim of this study is to detect variability and changes in the occurrence of the thermal seasons in Poland during the period from 1951 to 2010. A monthly temperature dataset using average area values allowed the researchers to set proper occurrence dates for the thermal seasons' beginnings and length according to the following criteria: winter (t < 0 A degrees C), early spring (0-5 A degrees C), spring (5-15 A degrees C), summer (t > 15 A degrees C), autumn (5-15 A degrees C) and early winter (0-5 A degrees C). Statistically significant long-term trends have been detected for the occurrence dates of the thermal seasons' beginnings and season length. Seasonal variability accelerated significantly since the end of the twentieth century. The trend of limiting wintertime in Poland is 0.64 days per year, while summer and early spring seasons are longer by approximately 0.30 and 0.25 days per year, respectively. All seasons since thermal early spring until thermal summer tend to occur earlier, while the following seasons have the opposite trend. As a result, the number of years without thermal winter has substantially increased in the past 20 years. Simultaneously, thermal summer became the longest season in 85 % of years after 1990 in comparison to less than 50 % in the period from 1951 to 1970. Also, the change in the annual course of monthly mean temperature results in the fact that thermal spring is becoming longer than thermal autumn.