Methodology for Estimating Waterway Traffic Capacity at Shanghai Estuary of the Yangtze River

摘要

The objective of this study is to propose a methodology for assessing waterway traffic capacity in the Shanghai estuary of the Yangtze River. To achieve this objective, we first put forward the estimation method which utilises the minimum collision distance taking the dynamic ship domain into consideration. Considering possible effects caused by unknown external factors, the waterway traffic capacity is then represented by a probability distribution. Finally, we quantify the equivalent units of ships with various ship sizes as well as the effects of large-sized ships on the waterway traffic capacity. Results show that a large-sized ship is equivalent to more small-sized ships during the daytime period than at night. In addition, the deployment of large-sized ships could increase the waterway traffic capacity and such an increment highly depends on the increased proportion of large-sized ships in the waterway traffic.