Analyzing interdependent impacts of resource sustainability

摘要

Quantifying the impact of the shortage of a scarce resource requires a systemic account of the interdependent nature of several industry and infrastructure sectors that rely either directly or indirectly on that resource. An ability to quickly and easily quantify such an impact provides policymakers with a useful measure of the efficacy of discovering, designing, or developing a sustainable alternative. Discussed in this paper is a methodological approach for measuring the broader interdependent impacts of a resource shortage. The dynamic inoperability input-output model (DIIM) is used to illustrate both the economic effects of resource shortages over a period of time and the time-dependent recovery of industry sectors. Extensions to the DIIM are introduced to produce an accessible tool for policymakers and industry decision makers. Case studies using publicly available data illustrate the usefulness of the model for describing local oil production shortages and global rare earth metals supply shortages, highlighting the industries that will need to adapt to changes in resource availability, as well as those industries that will remain relatively unaffected. Above all, the model presented in this paper is an effective means of communicating the impact and importance of resource shortages to assist in the design and development of a sustainable future.