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Forecasts for UltraViolet to reach 65 million active users by 2018 are jeopardized by key playersnnot supporting the ecosystem, said a report by ABI Research. “After a shaky start, UltraViolet is startingnto pick up steam,” said analyst Michael Inouye. Key players Apple, Disney and Amazon have yet to embracenthe digital content locker format backed by Sony, Warner Bros., Paramount, RIAA, Best Buy, Walmartnand numerous hardware companies, said the industry research firm. Apple already has a strong ecosystemnand Amazon is trying to replicate Apple’s success with its own, Inouye said, giving neither companynincentive to make its content available elsewhere. If the big players don’t end up joining, that wouldn“diminish UltraViolet’s value,” Inouye told us. It could also further “fragment” the market, alreadynchopped up into iTunes, Microsoft, Netflix and Amazon ecosystems, he said. The UltraViolet service hasnbeen referred to as “clunky” from a consumer point of view, especially compared with straight streamingnservices that are more streamlined, but Inouye said UltraViolet has enough studio and retail support to bensuccessful. “As long as consumers continue to buy Blu-rays, which they seem to be doing, it seems like anpretty good transition to UltraViolet,” he said. Long-term continuity of a consumer’s digital library is anothernkey uncertainty that could “diminish UV’s appeal,” said ABI. Consumers are looking for access onnall their devices as well as assurances they will not be forced to repurchase digital rights to content theynthought they already owned, said analyst Sam Rosen. The shift is on from physical to electronic media, hensaid, but “consumers continue to opt for subscription services and premium rentals rather than purchases,”nhe said. For UltraViolet to be successful, video transactions have to be as simple to access and store asnmusic is in the digital realm, he said. “If competing video libraries gain consumers’ trust without joiningnthe UltraViolet ecosystem, many of the components of UltraViolet will help facilitate B2B commerce butnwill fail from a consumer perspective." ABI estimated UltraViolet’s active user account base is 6 million-n8 million and predicts a base of 108 million by 2018, if key players support the platform.