International High Tech Competitiveness: Does China Rank Number 1?

摘要

This paper compares three selected indicator series that address national, technology-based competitiveness. The 'traditional' Georgia Tech High Tech Indicators (HTI) have been comparing 33 nations with respect to current and future prospects at exporting high tech products since the late 1980s. Those indicators blend expert opinion with statistical time series data. Second, we introduce 'statistics only' HTI, a revised formulation that addresses knowledge-based service export capabilities as well as high tech products, biennially. Third, the World Economic Forum annually generates its Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), treating 125 countries. The traditional HTI reported China supplanting the USA as the top-ranking economy as of 2007. That has generated some controversy. In striking contrast, the 2006-2007 GCI reported China as No. 54. This paper explores the bases for these differences. To a substantial degree, they derive from whether one normalises based on a nation's size. We conclude that these indicator series provide multiple perspectives that complement each other. In the case of China, all of these indicators point to continuing dramatic increase in technology-based economic competitiveness. If not yet, then within not too many years, the USA will likely be supplanted by China as the leading technology-based economy.