Developing scenario-based technology roadmap in the big data era: an utilisation of fuzzy cognitive map and text mining techniques

摘要

Scenario-based technology roadmaps (TRM) have been used to analyse future uncertainties in the technology planning phase. However, there is a limitation in the existing related studies that the internal and external factors of the increasing uncertainty of the future are not considered. In response, this study proposes a framework that analyses the textual big data to understand the relationship between factors that may affect future uncertainty and build a TRM through scenarios based on these relationships. To do this, Fuzzy Cognitive Map technique, which analyses causal relationships between various factors in fuzzy graph form, is incorporated into TRM. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework, an illustrative case study was conducted using real data for an unmanned aerial vehicle. This study is expected to help integrate and utilise big data effectively in the technology planning stage.