A model for understanding the orders of magnitude of disruptive technologies

摘要

There are numerous emerging technologies that are potentially disruptive to business, to government, and to society. This paper looks at the two levels of disruptive technologies. A first order disruption is a localized change, within a market or industry. A second order disruption has much larger influences, affecting many industries and substantially changing societal norms and institutions. This paper presents an analysis of these types of disruptions and synthesizes the literature on disruptive technologies and Kondratieffs long waves. Previous definitions of disruptive technologies have focused on disruptions to commercial markets and existing firms. That is, on the first order of disruption, where a particular technology is disruptive. The second order disruptions are technological disruptions, where the impacts ripple through society. That is, these technologies disrupt social interactions and relationships, organizational structures, institutions and public policies. Since innovation ecosystems are complex, dynamic, adaptive systems, technological design and development necessarily interact with social trends. Understanding and modelling potential disruptions will require taking a holistic perspective of the socio-technical innovation ecosystem. This paper lays out a conceptual model of first and second order disruptions and identifies the key factors necessary for modelling the process that results in second order disruptions-a process that necessarily occurs at the intersection of several highly-complex interactive systems.