Long-term strategic thinking, the Themis method and the future of food

摘要

We are living in an age of accelerated change and even those industries, once dealing with relatively stable consumer habits, are now faced with the question: in the long run, which products will be demanded by the market and which ones risk to become obsolete? Giving an answer is a very complex issue, involving the evaluation of a high number of variables which have an influence on all segments of the production chain. Under these conditions, common economic forecasting techniques might be ineffective.The author of this article looked for alternative research tools beyond strategic management. Megatrends, sectoral trends analysis and expert panel techniques have been structured and logically combined to produce a new method for the generation of future scenarios especially suited for groups of industry experts, called Themis. The paper presents the methodology as well as the results of the first large scale foresighting exercise built upon it, involving a total of 20 managers and entrepreneurs of the food sector in Italy.The value of the Themis process does not lay as much in the production of statistically generalizable estimates or in selecting the most probable future scenario but rather in its support to long-term strategic thinking and in sharing opinions among peers.