Forecast of the output value of Taiwan's opto-electronics industry using the Grey forecasting model

摘要

This article applies the Grey forecasting model from Grey theory to forecast accurately the output value of Taiwan's opto-electronics industry from 2000 to 2005. The 2005 output value of Taiwan's opto-electronics industry will be NT$2216.954 billion; of opto-electronics components, NT$ 150.995 billion; of computer peripherals, NT$1993 billion; of optical devices and equipment, NT$24.664 billion; of opto-electronics applications, NT$17.374 billion; and of optical fiber communications, NT$30.921 billion. The results show that the average residual error of the Grey forecasting model is lower than 10%. They further show that the Grey forecasting model exhibits high prediction accuracy. Clearly, the Grey forecasting model is a viable means of accurately forecasting the value of industrial output. Furthermore, growth of computer peripherals and optical fiber communications will be much greater than that of opto-electronics components, opto-electronic applications, and optic devices and equipment. The findings offer a valuable reference for government in drafting relevant policies for the opto-electronics industry and for firms in drawing up relevant policies for their products.