A scenario analysis of energy requirements and energy intensity for China's rapidly developing society in the year 2020

摘要

Both energy requirements and energy intensity are crucial to the development of a society. This article uses an input-output model to assess how social and economic changes will affect energy requirements and energy intensity for China's rapidly developing society. According to the proposed input-output model, six scenarios were sequentially developed by introducing major impact factors, such as technological advancement, population, income, and urbanization, in order to project China's energy requirements. Based on 1997 data, the impact of economic and social changes on China's energy requirements in 2010 and 2020 were quantitatively analyzed. The results show that technological advancement has the strongest impact on energy intensity. Based on these findings, some related conclusions and corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.